Putin's Perils

9 May, 2005

The visit of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Moscow will go down as a watershed in the Bush administration's perception of Vladimir Putin.

Washington is now critical of:

• The concentration of power in the presidency
• The ending of elections for state governors
• The throttling of independent media

Chechen

The United States is quietly encouraging the view that Putin was helped to power through the involvement of the Russian secret service, FSB, in the bombings that ripped apart workers' apartment blocks in three cities, including Moscow, in 1999.

The bombings have been officially blamed on Chechen terrorists, but the conspiracy theory is boosted by the discovery of FSB agents planting a similar bomb in Ryazan as a 'training exercise'.

The city bombings provided the pretext for a second Chechen war in December the same year. The mysterious handover of power from President Boris Yeltsin to Putin, the architect of the war, followed.

Putin's presidency is a child of the Chechen war, and his legitimacy largely derived from his promise to prosecute it to victory.

Unwinnable

As with the war in Afghanistan, the Kremlin it taking years to grasp that it cannot force a final outcome in Chechnya.

With the killing of 80,000 civilians, mostly by Russian forces, and continued major human rights infringements, the war is difficult to ignore, or condone, as Washington will now be recognising.

In addition, Moscow's tactics are failing: the fighting goes on, year after year.

Elimination

Putin's most recent 'triumph' was the elimination of Aslan Maskhadov, the last elected President of Chechnya, this spring.

Maskhadov was taken by surprise - possibly through detection of a mobile phone conversation, more probably through betrayal, in the village of Tolstoy Yurt. A proponent of a negotiated settlement, he enjoyed great popular appeal among Chechens - and just a month ago had ordered a ceasefire as a 'goodwill gesture'.

Putin refused to talk.

Extremist

Although the extremist Chechen rebel leader Shamic Basayev formally respected the ceasefire, it is possible that he - or even more radical lieutenants - betrayed Maskhadov's hiding place to a pro-Moscow Chechen group, led by Ramzan Kadyrou, son of Chechnya's former pro-Russian puppet.

Both Putin and Basayev have a vested interest in keeping the war going.

It is suspicious that the Russians failed to take Maskhadov alive, though he was virtually alone.

Basayev, the man behind the Beslan school siege a year ago, may now take up the reins of the whole Chechen rebel movement, and this would suit Putin who could respond that negotiation was no longer possible.

Al-Qaeda

Moscow says Basayev is closely linked with al-Qaeda, rather than representing Chechens, but has provided scant evidence. Certainly, however, he has been responsible for spreading the armed struggle into the North Caucasus.

Hopes of peace seem forlorn while Putin and Basayev remain the leaders of their respective sides.

Beleaguered

Apart from Chechnya, Putin remains beleaguered on several fronts:

• His own supporters are increasingly blaming him for the 'loss' of Ukraine after the ham-fisted intervention in the election there, which followed the installation of a pro-western government in Georgia.
• Mass demonstrations by old people against proposed pension reforms were unprecedented, resulting in a sharp reverse in parliament and precipitating a fall in the President's popularity.
• Putin's repression of the press and intimidation of his opponents is badly viewed by an increasingly sophisticated Russia with its own large middle class.
• Above all, Putin's handling of the economy remains under fire.
• His campaign against Mikhail Khordokovsky, jailed boss of Yukos and virtual nationalisation of the oil giant is putting off inward foreign investment as legal worries mount.

Oil

The high price of oil is still one overwhelming factor that that underpins Russia's economy - and Putin's domestic position.

So long as that continues, the President believes that he can stamp himself as the strong man he thinks Russians want by clamping down on independent media, centralising power, slashing the authority of regional bosses and waging a populist campaign against the oligarchs.

Discontent

The reality is that

• Putin has presided over the loss of Russian dependencies such as Ukraine and Georgia - Belarus is likely to be next.
• The economy is uncomfortably oil-dependant
• The war in Chechnya seems set only for further escalation for reasons set out above as extremists lead the fight.

The hardening of America's attitude will reflect this, sharpened by Bush's visits to former Russian satraps this spring.

If things continue in this vein, a popular wave of discontent could shake the Kremlin, particularly if oil prices fall. At that point, the stage would be set for a palace coup that would dash Putin's ambitions.