All the President's Men

25 January, 2005

George W. Bush's second term Cabinet provides significant pointers to how the Presidents intends his administration to work over the coming years.

His choices place loyalty to the White House above externally acquired reputation - in striking contrast to the first administration line-up.

Whatever their eventual political fates, men like Secretary of State Colin Powell, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, Attorney-General John Ashcroft and Homeland Security Chief Tom Ridge were substantial and well-known figures in their own fields.

A run-down of the new Cabinet shows a different pattern.

Rice

The new Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice is a Bush loyalist who was virtually unknown before she became National Security Adviser after acting as adviser on Europe to the first President Bush.

Though respected for her intellect and communication skills, her judgements have frequently been called into question notably:

• Her view that the changes across eastern Europe before 1989 were largely cosmetic.
• Her neglect of the threat posed by Al-Qaida before Nine-Eleven.
• The certainty with which she propounded the view that Saddam Hussein was harbouring weapons of mass destruction.

Hitherto, Rice's most salient feature has been her deference to the views of President Bush, leading to her being dubbed one of the weakest National Security Advisers in years.

Her supporters suggest that her closeness to the President will allow the State Department to influence him much more effectively than under Powell, who was shut out of key decisions by the White House; her detractors fear that she will turn the department into a cipher.

Zoellick

Rice's deputy, outgoing US trade representative Robert Zoellick, is a highly competent but low-key official who will focus on the economic aspects of diplomacy.

Zoellick, who worked under the first President Bush's Secretary of State, James Baker, is not identified with strong policy views.

He will provide the bureaucratic ballast needed by Rice - who has no experience at all of running a large department.

Snow

John Snow, the lacklustre Treasury Secretary, has retained his job - but only because other, stronger candidates turned it down.

Snow will fight loyally for the controversial centrepieces of the President's domestic programme - reform of social security and the tax code - but will bring little political persuasiveness to the cause.

On the dollar, he is unlikely to do anything to try to buck the markets.

Gonzales

The new Attorney-General, Alberto Gonzales, born to a poor Hispanic family, is a highly competent lawyer.

His selection has ignored the storm that rose from his legal opinion that the President has the right to authorise torture in defence of national security and that the United States could override the Geneva Convention on torture.

His reward for loyalty has been promotion.

Homeland security

The new director of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, is mainly known as one of the investigators of the saga over Bill Clinton's Whitewater investment and for helping to draft the controversial Patriot Act brought in after 9/11.

Chertoff has no experience of running a big bureaucracy - the 180,000 - strong Homeland Security department is still in its infancy, but is one of the biggest.

Heavyweights

The heavyweights in the second Bush administration will be Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

Cheney combines a formidable intellectual framework and fire power with strongly held conservative opinions which chime in with Bush's own.

Having staked out his position on Iraq and foreign policy, he is set to play a leading role in domestic affairs, particularly on the economy, and changes to Social Security and the tax code where he will push for moves towards a flat tax system.

The access to the President he has built up in the last four years make Cheney the key figure in overseeing implementation of the second term Bush economic programme, drawing on his experience and contacts in Congress to handle opposition from more centrist Republicans while assuring the party's right that he is advancing its agenda at the heart of power.

That will make him the most powerful Vice-President in American history, though his modus operandi means that much of what he does will be conducted behind the scenes.

Rumsfeld

Rumsfeld's continuing presence - and the increasing authority the Pentagon is being given over intelligence and covert operations free of congressional oversight - shows several strands in the Bush mindset.

• His closeness to loyal lieutenants
• His identification with the invasion of Iraq
• His attachment to carrying the operation to its conclusion
• The belief that, having come under fire for troop levels, the post-war planning and treatment of captives, Rumsfeld should stay to see the job in Iraq through, at least until troops withdrawals can get under way and a stable government is in place in Baghdad.

Chemistry

The personal chemistry will be important.

The President feels comfortable with Cheney and Rumsfeld. Though intellectual heavy-hitters of the right and considerably older than Bush, they defer to his office.

For her part, Rice is also adept at not seeking to overawe him with her intellect.

Still, it is hard to think of a recent administration so lacking in influential figures in their own fields.

Hard-nosed

The danger is of an absence of Cabinet Secretaries able to tell the strongly-willed President where he is going wrong, particularly at a time when the Republicans control Congress.

Despite the current expressions of verbal goodwill to build bridges post-Iraq, this will strength the hard-nosed conservative approach to world affairs favoured by Rumsfeld and Cheney and adopted by Bush after 9/11.

At home, it will mean an absence of questioning of economic policy, however the deficit expands however weak the dollar.

Out but not Down

Perhaps the most intriguing figure in Washington is Colon Powell, whose departure from the State Department earlywarning forecast last autumn.

He leaves with his reputation largely intact, except among the right-wing of his own party.

Having served his President and country loyally in war, despite his better judgment, he will be untarnished if Iraq proves to be a continuing political and military quagmire.

That could make him an attractive figure for the broader Republican party, including those unhappy at the trend of White House policy.

A popular, relatively non-partisan general with high credibility ratings could put himself forward as a peacemaker for a divided nation.