Russia's New Imperium

28 October, 2004

Having asserted himself at home, Vladimir Putin is now set on expanding Moscow's sway over former Soviet states on Russia's borders.

Officials in some central European states are convinced that Putin retains 'imperial ambitions' for de facto reincorporation of many of what are known as the former 'near abroad' states of the former USSR.

An increasingly dramatic example has been his political, and personal, closeness to the Ukraine's outgoing President Leonid Kuchma.

Challenge

In a heavy-handed display, the Russian leader flew into the Ukraine this week, officially to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Soviet army's liberation of Kiev from the Nazis, but really to bolster the Kremlin's favourite in the battle for the succession in Sunday's Ukrainian presidential election.

The visit was prompted by the strong challenge to the government-backed candidate Viktor 'The Power' Yanukovych by the reformist, pro-Western opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, whose supporters have been attacked by thinly disguised plain clothed police and who has been denied virtually all coverage on state television.

Fears of a crackdown have been underlined by Kuchma's decision to postpone a visit to Poland to deal with mounting unrest at home.

Crimea

The outcome of the election, which is impossible to predict given the pressure the government can bring to bear against the popular opposition, will be a key element in Putin's plans.

But, even if his candidate, Yanukovych, wins on Sunday, the authoritarian Kuchma will still have to confront the unpopularity he has brought on the regime by his subservience to Moscow.

He gave in to the Kremlin to let the Russians build a dam into Ukrainian waters across the key Kerch Strait, linking the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, separating the Crimea from Russian territory.

If Kiev tried to resist these moves by Moscow, it knows that its armed forces would not long withstand Russian pressure.

Belarus

The Russians are stirring up trouble in the Crimea, claiming that the country's Tatars are Islamic fundamentalist separatists - in an echo of the rhetoric in Chechnya.

Another frontier state to the west in which Putin will be seeking to bring into the fold is Belarus.

In a heavily criticised poll, its dictatorial President Alexander Lukashenko recently won 77 per cent of the vote to scrap the limit on a third five-year presidential term in 2006.

Lukashenko will reciprocate Putin's advances, seeing his best chance of survival against popular opposition as lying in Kremlin backing.

Central Asia

To the south and east, Putin also has his eye on the former Soviet states in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgystan, all of whose leaders will be ready to act as buffer states.

This will mean their quasi-reincorporation into a reconstituted, if informal, Russian empire.

Moscow is establishing a military base in Tajikistan. Along with a new air base in Kyrgystan, this will be part of what Moscow sees as a 'united system of collective security in the region'.

Investments

Putin has cash to offer in return,

Tajikstan is set to receive $2 billion in investments, and $300 million in debt relief to the Tajik leader.

One function of the bases will be to act as a counter to the US presence that had grown in Central Asia since 9/11 - and also to help intercept terrorists and the drug trafficking across the border in Afghanistan.

China

The Kremlin's border strategy is also leading it to get agreement with China to remove potential flashpoints along their 2,700 kilometre frontier.

Beijing is anxious to keep good relations with Moscow because it wants Russian oil, and the construction of a pipeline on which Putin is playing hard to get.

Having resigned itself to the loss of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, Moscow will stay within its present frontiers, but will pursue increasing political and economic penetration of border states that are likely to become part of a new Russian dominion.